Differences in 2020 national polling methods
Highlighting the changes made from 2016 in order to make polling more representative
Tyler Pugmire / News Editor
In 2016, some Americans lost faith in the polls after a surprise victory that led to Donald Trump’s presidency for the past four years. Since then, national polling agencies such as those at Quinnipiac University, NBC News, and The Washington Post have been actively working to restore the trust of the American people.
2016 polls were a clear example that in order to be accurate, polling must be done carefully, intentionally, and most importantly, reach the American people.
There are now three different ways that these major organizations are gathering their information. In the past, robocalls asking for information were the most prominent way of getting polling information, but now, organizations such as FOX News and CNN have been telephoning using live interviewers. CBS News is using an opt-in online voting format, and The Associated Press uses a panel of respondents that are found offline.
This year, polling has found that there has been a shift in political preferences in Georgia and Texas, now declaring both of the states as tossups. Republicans have claimed Texas as their own, and have won every single presidential election since 1976. However, some surveys are showing that Joe Biden could potentially swing the state, and receive the second most electoral college votes.
Polling has also shown Georgia, normally a heavily red state in all facets, to be a tossup. One survey of 782 voters is showing Biden to have a one point lead, even though the margin of error is around 3.5%.
Polls are conducted publicly and privately, and can help candidates plan where to travel and campaign. Senator Kamala Harris met with Senator Ann Kirkpatrick in Arizona on Thursday, and Donald Trump has been spending a large amount of time in Pennsylvania and the Midwest, trying to win over the two swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin.
Polls are continuing to show that the race will be tight, and it is evident that fewer polling agencies are willing to call a winner in order to make sure that they do not have a repeat of 2016.
An issue with polling procedures is that in order to adjust to population density and demographics, pollsters will inflate the numbers of people that they have information for, which can skew the results.
When the main participants in polls are older or have graduated college, sometimes the numbers can be inflated significantly. These two demographics tend to be the ones most open to any polling technique, and if polls are not conducted carefully, then too many of one age group can sway the numbers to show an incorrect assumption. Many organizations, such as the Pew Research Center, have adjusted this inflation technique, and have started classifying each person into up to 12 different demographics in order to inflate their numbers properly.
These polls will either restore or reinforce the distrust that has come due to the outcome in 2016, and these new strategies can lay the foundation for what is to come in the next elections in order to get a grasp on where America is headed.