The 2021 recall election is over. Now what?

USD professors reflect on the impact of CA Governor recall election

Jenny Han / Assistant News Editor / The USD Vista

Approximately two weeks ago on Sept. 14, thousands of Californians waited in line at the polling booth or dropped off their ballots at their local ballot dropbox. The results: Gavin Newsom is not to be recalled. According to the New York Times CA Recall Election Results Live Map, out of a total of 11,937,257 votes, 62.6% of voters said “no” to the recall. This number is the number of voters who said “yes” to the recall (37.4%). California needed to have at least 50% of voters vote “yes” in order for the recall to actually happen. 

The margin wasn’t so drastic in San Diego. According to The San Diego Union-Tribune, out of a total of 935,863 votes, only 58.26% of San Diegans voted “no” to the recall while 41.47% of voters said “yes”. In California, Larry Elder was the leading Republican candidate. 48% of California recallers voted for Elder as their alternative choice, while 45.51% of San Diego recallers did the same. In total, the LA Times estimates that the total estimated election cost is between $276 to $300 million. 

For Dr. Evan Crawford, an Assistant Professor for the Department of Political Science and International Relations, these results weren’t surprising. 

 “If you look all up and down all the counties in California and you look at the percentage of the vote that voted no on the recall, it’s pretty strongly correlated with what the percent vote for Newsom was last time, or what the percent vote for Biden was,” Dr. Crawford said. 

Dr. Casey Dominguez, also a professor for the Department of Political Science and International Relations, shared his sentiments. 

“I don’t think that it necessarily speaks to his personal popularity,” Dr. Dominguez said. “It really reflects the choice that California voters make between the parties.”

 Dr. Dominguez also noted that the Democratic party mobilizing their voters through TV ads and the “Get Out the Vote” campaigns run by volunteers also played a big role in their victory during the 2021 recall election. 

Although, Dr. Crawford and Dr. Dominguez have differing views on if the 2021 recall election was worth the effort and the 300 billion dollars, they both agree that the recall system does need some serious revisions. For Dr. Crawford, this includes increasing the number of signatures needed for the recall petition to happen. As of right now, that number is 12% of the total voters. 

“If we think about the recall, as it was first instituted back in the early 1900s, maybe back then, it was fine having whatever the threshold of signatures was a good enough of an indicator that yes, we should move on with this process,” Dr. Crawford noted. “But now in 2021, it’s easier than ever to mobilize for groups to organize and mobilize and get signatures. And so maybe because it’s gotten so much easier to get signatures, we need to rethink what the threshold is for how many signatures we need.” 

Pie charts representing CA recall election results 

Dr. Crawford also believes that the qualifications needed in order to run for governor might undergo some changes. However, he considers doing so would imply a “double-edged sword.” Even though increasing the requirements would shrink the number of candidates, he also acknowledges that it could discriminate against those without a significant amount of money or power status. 

Dr. Dominguez believes that the recall process is flawed because it shows how “the whole direct democracy enterprise is really for sale.” She doesn’t think there is anything problematic about the concept of a recall. Rather, how the recall process plays out is what she considers is problematic. 

“The number of signatures that you need to put a recall on the ballot but also an initiative or a referendum on the ballot are very low, and you can pay people to gather those signatures,” Dr. Dominguez said. “And so really, anything that goes on the direct ballot in California is a function of who wants to spend a couple million dollars buying signatures.” 

The loophole in the recall system is also important to consider for Dr. Dominguez.

 “The recall is especially problematic because it can allow someone to become governor,on the second question ,on the recall, with far fewer votes than the [current] governor may have just received,” Dr, Dominguez said.  

Her solution? Along with implementing a higher percentage of signatures needed in order for the recall election to happen, she believes that Question 1 (Should the current governor be recalled?) and Question 2 (Who should replace the current governor) of the recall elections need to be two separate elections. 

Both Dr. Dominguez and Dr. Crawford agree that we should also refer to other states’ recall election processes as references for how CA’s recall process could be improved. 

Regardless of what changes are made to the recall election process, assuming that any changes do happen, it’s important to acknowledge that this is a highly debated and very relevant topic. 

What happened with Governor Gavin Newsom isn’t the first, and certainly will not be California’s last gubernatorial recall election.